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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.