🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."