An Forecasting Platform User Earned $436,000 from Bets on Maduro's Downfall.
A bettor profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president just before it was publicly declared, raising questions about potential gains made from non-public details of the event.
Market Movement in Wagers
Bets placed on the crypto-platform, an online prediction market, that Nicolás Maduro would be no longer in control by the close of the month rose in the time leading up to Donald Trump announced on January 3rd that the president had been taken into custody.
A single trader, which registered on the site last month and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of over $32,000.
It remains unclear. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification.
Market Signals Before Public Statement
Trading information shows that traders estimated the likelihood of a political change at just under 7% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd.
Yet the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and surged in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a rapid movement in betting activity right before the official statement was made.
"This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on inside information," commented a financial reform advocate.
A small number of other traders also made large payouts from predicting the capture.
Regulatory Scrutiny Grows
Some lawmakers are starting to take note.
A new rule presented on recently seeks to ban government employees from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "material nonpublic information" related to a wager.
Market Background
Event-driven betting sites have grown significantly in the past few years, with participants able to predict everything from elections to political events.
The industry were examined under the last presidential term. Yet it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency.
Trading on insider information is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the event betting arena.
An official representative for a competing service said their site "strictly forbids trading on insider information of any form."
